Typhoon 01C (Halola), #42

1:30 p.m. Friday, July 24, Japan time: Here’s the latest Typhoon Halola wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight; not much change to it:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 5 a.m. Saturday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds, 9 a.m. Saturday.
  • Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 86-mph gusts for Okinawa, noon Saturday (46-mph sustained, 63-mph gusts for Kadena).
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained, 5 p.m. Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, 9 p.m. Saturday.

Weather flight forecasts between 4 to 6 inches of rain at Kadena associated with Halola.


1 p.m. Friday, July 24, Korea time: Another country heard from; this time, the Republic of Korea.

Area IV, which includes U.S. military bases in Daegu and Busan in the southeastern part of the Korean peninsula, has been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 72 hours.

Halola is forecast to roar past Area IV, 38 miles southeast of Busan at 11 p.m. Sunday and 93 miles southeast of Daegu — including camps Henry, George and Walker — and K-2 Air Base about two hours later. An Area IV spokesman said winds of about 40 mph are expected in the Daegu area, less up at Camp Carroll, about 10 miles northwest of Daegu in suburban Waegwan.


11:40 a.m. Friday, July 24, Japan time: Now that Sasebo Naval Base and its properties have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, here’s the updated forecast and wind timeline from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Fleet Activities Sasebo’s official Facebook page:

JTWC projects Typhoon Halola to pass 67 miles northwest of Sasebo on Sunday afternoon as a significant tropical storm, packing sustained 69-mph winds and 86-mph gusts at its center. Typhoon-force winds are not forecast at the moment, but here’s what Sasebo can expect:

  • 6 a.m. Sunday, 35- to 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.
  • 9 a.m. Sunday, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts.
  • 2 p.m. Sunday, 35- to 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.

This could change, since the closest point of approach is now a bit later than previously forecast by JTWC.

Halola is due to pass about 138 miles northwest of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, also in TCCOR 3, at around 3 a.m. Monday.

As for Okinawa, Halola’s forecast track is edging a tad closer to Okinawa, now 82 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at about mid-day Saturday. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in TCCOR 2; that could be upgraded sometime late Friday afternoon. PST will provide the latest wind-forecast timeline when it becomes available.


10 a.m. Friday, July 24, Japan time: Sasebo Naval Base and its properties and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni have each been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater possible within 48 hours.


5 a.m. Friday, July 24, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.


2 a.m. Friday, July 24, Japan time: Here’s the latest Typhoon Halola wind-forecast timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. Times have been adjusted from previous posts:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 5 a.m. Saturday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 9 a.m. Saturday.
  • Peak 58-mph sustained, 86-mph gusts for Okinawa: 11 a.m. Saturday (52-mph sustained, 63-mph gusts for Kadena).
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: 6 p.m. Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Saturday.

Forecast calls for 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with Halola.


Midnight Thursday, July 23, Japan time: Little by little, bit by bit, Typhoon Halola’s forecast track keeps edging further east of Okinawa, but there remains uncertainty among forecast models as to its exact track, so it’s no time to get complacent. U.S. bases on Okinawa are far from out of the woods.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update, at 9 p.m., Halola was about 425 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base and its forward speed has slowed, traveling west-northwest at 8 mph. That could delay its closest point of approach to Okinawa, now projected to be 92 miles northeast at about 11 a.m. Saturday, three hours later than previous forecast.

Halola is approaching the 25th Parallel and JTWC reports Halola has reached its peak forecast winds, 98-mph sustained and 121-mph gusts at its center. As it moves north of the Tropic of Cancer, Halola is forecast to begin encountering unfavorable conditions which could degrade it some as it makes its approach.

Halola is depicted to be packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at its center as it rumbles past Okinawa. Much of the island figures to remain inside Halola’s 40-mph wind bands, but the worst of it could be confined to the very northeast edges of Okinawa, perhaps even miss the island altogether.

But there remains a vast spread among dynamic model guidance regarding Halola’s projected curve north and northeast, so this could very easily change. Halola could track closer to Okinawa, it could track further away; it remains to be seen. That’s how things stand for the moment.

Once past Okinawa, Halola is forecast to hurtle north, then northeast, passing 76 miles northwest of Sasebo Naval Base at about 7 p.m. Sunday, still packing a significant wallop, 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at its center.

Fleet Activities Sasebo’s latest forecast calls for:

  • Saturday: Southeasterly 35- to 40-mph sustained winds and 51-mph gusts by afternoon, increasing to 40- to 46-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts by evening.
  • Sunday: 46- to 51-mph sustained winds and 67-mph gusts in the morning, decreasing to 40- to 46-mph sustained winds and 53-mph gusts by mid-afternoon, then 35- to 40-mph sustained winds and 51-mph gusts in the evening.
  • Monday: Winds should shift east, 30- to 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts.

Sasebo can expect isolated and scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the forecast. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain are expected.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; TCCOR 2 might likely be issued sometime Friday morning.. Sasebo remains in TCCOR Storm Watch; that might be upgraded as well. All depends on forecast track and wind and forward speed.

As for the new tropical depression that spawned east of the Philippines earlier Thursday, initial JTWC projection doesn’t see it being a major threat; forecast track calls for unnamed 12W to curve northeast of Luzon and dissipate by mid-afternoon Sunday. But PST will keep an eye glued to it in case something changes.


7:40 p.m. Thursday, July 23, Japan time: Okinawa might, just might catch a bit of a break. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update projects Typhoon Halola to track a bit further east of Okinawa and start diminishing earlier than previously forecast.

At 3 p.m., Halola was 475 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, tracking west-northwest at 9 mph. JTWC forecasts Halola to peak early Friday morning at 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at its center, then start weakening as it crosses the 25th parallel and encounters an increasingly unfavorable environment.

That’s not to say Okinawa is completely out of the woods. Halola is forecast to track 75 miles northeast of Kadena at about 8 a.m. Saturday, still packing a powerful punch, 92- to 98-mph sustained winds and 115- to 121-mph gusts at its center.

The worst winds should be confined to the island’s northeast side, but the large concentration of U.S. bases on the island’s southwest side should be well within Halola’s 40-mph sustained-wind bands, JTWC reports.

There’s still a great degree of uncertainty regarding when and where Halola will begin curving north, then northeast. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; expect an upgrade sometime early Saturday morning, depending on forecast track and wind speeds.

Latest wind-forecast timeline from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: Midnight Thursday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 6 a.m. Friday.
  • Peak 69-mph sustained winds, 81-mph gusts for Okinawa: 8 a.m. Friday (52-mph sustained, 63-mph gusts for Kadena).
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: Noon Friday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 5 p.m. Friday.

Kadena’s weather flight still forecasts between 6 to 8 inches associated with Halola.

Once away from the Ryukyu Island chain, Halola is depicted by JTWC to curve north, then northeast around southwestern Kyushu, some 77 miles northwest of Sasebo Naval Base at about 6 p.m. Sunday as a strong tropical storm, 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts at center.

Halola is forecast to skim the Korean peninsula’s southeast coast, 26 miles southeast of Pusan and 81 miles southeast of Daegu/Area IV at midnight Sunday, then rapidly track northeast before dying out just south of Hokkaido Tuesday afternoon.


1:40 p.m. Thursday, July 23, Japan time: Halola remains on course to sideswipe Okinawa at mid-morning Saturday, with gusts as high as 98 mph possible on the island’s northeastern upper reaches, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s latest updates.

U.S. bases on Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 at 10:55 a.m. At 9 a.m., Halola was about 530 miles east-southeast of Kadena, tracking north-northwest at 9 mph, packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at its center. Halola is forecast to peak at 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at mid-morning Friday, then start to diminish as it heads north of the Tropic of Cancer.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement on a curve just northeast of Okinawa. JTWC projects closest point of approach to be 60 miles northeast at around 9 a.m. Saturday, but given how the forecast track has shifted some 600 miles in the past four or five days, that could change. Stay tuned.

Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena’s weather flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds, 3 a.m. Saturday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds, 6 a.m. Saturday.
  • Peak winds of 75-mph sustained and 98-mph gusts for Okinawa, 9 a.m. Saturday (52-mph sustained, 69-mph gusts at Kadena Air Base).
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained, noon Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, 3 p.m. Saturday.

Weather flight projects between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with Halola.

In the long term, Halola should remain a fairly strong Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it hurtles about 87 miles west-northwest of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Kyushu at about 6 p.m. Sunday. Sasebo and its properties remain in TCCOR Storm Watch for now.

Now’s as good a time as any to begin preparing for Halola’s projected arrival; see preparation tips from a previous post below and in the side-menu links on this page. Get your safe on, Okinawa!

As if the news couldn’t get any worse, a new tropical disturbance has formed off the east coast of Luzon, enough of a concern that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued a tropical cyclone formation alert this morning. PST has an eye on it.


10:55 a.m. Thursday, July 23, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.


8:15 a.m. Thursday, July 23, Japan time: Halola’s forecast track has shifted further west, with Okinawa now a possible target Saturday morning, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update and Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

At 3 a.m., Halola was about 580 miles east-southeast of Kadena, tracking west-northwest at 9 mph, packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at its center. If it remains on its forecast track, Halola is due to pass 53 miles northeast of Kadena at about 9 a.m. Saturday.

Weather flight officials said to expect onset of 40-mph winds at 3 a.m. Saturday, 58-mph at 7 a.m. and maximum winds at Kadena could be 52-mph sustained and 75-mph gusts at about 9 a.m. Winds on the northeast side of the island could be as high as 75-mph sustained and 98-mph gusts at about 9 a.m.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; expect an upgrade to TCCOR 3 sometime later Thursday morning, at about 9 or 10 a.m.

From there, it appears Halola should track away from Sasebo Naval Base, 110 miles west at about 6 p.m. Sunday, skirt the southeast coast of the Korean peninsula, then head rapidly northeast into the Sea of Japan (East Sea) on Monday. Sasebo remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.

There’s still uncertainty over the exact timing of the curve north and northeast, so this could change yet again.


Midnight Wednesday, July 22, Japan time: New update, same old story: Typhoon Halola’s latest forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center takes it almost directly over Sasebo Naval Base early Sunday evening and closer, ever closer, to Okinawa.

At 9 p.m., Halola was about 640 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, tracking west-northwest at 10 mph, packing sustained 86-mph winds and 104-mph gusts at its center. JTWC continues to project peak winds of 110-mph sustained and 132-mph gusts about mid-evening Friday, then decreasing as Halola curves north-northeast toward Sasebo.

The question still remains, how soon will that curve come? JTWC reports that dynamic model guidance still remains spread over how far west the high-pressure ridge north of Okinawa extends, so much can still change in the run-up to the weekend.

For now, JTWC projects Halola to pass about 150 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 10 a.m. Saturday; that’s nearly 20 miles closer than the last update indicated.

A large eastern chunk of Okinawa appears to be well within JTWC’s forecast 40-mph wind bands, but if the track changes again, Okinawa could be in for worse. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

From there, Halola is forecast to circle 3 miles west of Sasebo at around 7 p.m. Sunday, still packing ferocious tropical-storm winds, 63-mph sustained and 81-mph gusts at its center. Sasebo remains in TCCOR Storm Watch; that could change as soon as Thursday morning.

For folks in both locales, Sasebo and Okinawa, no time like now to re-check your typhoon closet, especially the newbies, seeing how this PCS season and many new folk are checking in.

Make a check around home and office; start bring inside or tying down loose objects that could become hazardous projectiles in high winds. Make that commissary and exchange run soon. Non-perishable food and water to last at least three days. Food for the furry friends as well. Diapers and baby formula for your young’uns. Flashlight and portable radio with plenty of batteries spare in case of a power outage. If it reaches the TCCOR 2 stage or beyond, head for the ATM and gasoline stand, fill up the gas tank and get enough currency to last three days.

Get your safe on!


5 p.m. Wednesday, July 22, Japan time: Not much has changed since the last update, other than Typhoon Halola exceeding previous peak-wind forecasts and edging a tad closer to Okinawa and Sasebo Naval Base, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

At 3 p.m., Halola was about 700 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, tracking west-northwest at about 13 mph. JTWC projects Halola to peak at 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at its center around mid-afternoon Friday, gradually diminishing as it rounds the edge of the steering ridge north and curves north and northeast.

The question remains: When and where will that curve occur? Dynamic model guidance still is in disagreement over the extent of the steering ridge; how far west does it actually extend? Might Halola curve earlier, or as currently forecast, or even later, which could bring Halola even closer to Okinawa? All that remains up in the air, JTWC reports.

Current projections have Halola banking 168 miles east-northeast of Kadena at around 11 a.m. Saturday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at its center.

At the moment, only the very northeast edges of Okinawa are within JTWC’s projected 40-mph wind bands, but as with all else these past few days, change could occur yet again; forecast track has varied some 500 miles west the past three days.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; no changes are imminent, according to Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. That could change as well, depending on future forecast tracks.

If Halola remains on current forecast track, it should then curve north, passing 24 miles east of Sasebo Naval Base, still packing significant tropical storm winds, 69-mph sustained and 86-mph gusts, after which it should take rather rapid flight over the Sea of Japan (East Sea).


12:30 p.m. Wednesday, July 22, Japan time: Sasebo Naval Base and its properties have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch as of 9 a.m. until further notice, Fleet Activities Sasebo announced on its Facebook page.

U.S. bases on Okinawa may follow Sasebo’s lead or even enter TCCOR 3; that decision should be made Thursday morning, according to Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight commander Capt. Matthew Klick.

At 9 a.m., Typhoon Halola was about 770 miles east-southeast of Kadena, tracking almost due-west at 12 mph, packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at its center, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Halola is forecast to peak at 104-mph sustained and 127-mph gusts Thursday evening into Friday morning, then start diminishing as it heads further north.

The question remains, when and where Halola’s forecast curve north and northeast will occur. Dynamic model guidance still disagrees on that critical issue, JTWC reports.

For the moment, JTWC depicts Halola to curve 182 miles east-northeast of Kadena at about 7 a.m. Saturday, still packing a powerful punch, 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at its center. Peak winds are forecast at this point to occur between Friday evening and Saturday afternoon. More information as it become available.

From there, Halola is forecast to pass 35 miles east of Sasebo at about 5 a.m. Sunday as a significant tropical storm, 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts at center. Sasebo’s official weather page calls for winds to pick up starting Friday, 18- to 23-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts by evening, increasing to 23- to 29-mph sustained and 46-mph gusts by late evening.

Keep in mind, all this can change, as there’s still disagreement as to where and when Halola starts curving north. PST has its eye on it.


9:45 a.m. Wednesday, July 22, Japan time: Typhoons can be unpredictable beasts, and no poster-child example can serve better than Halola.

Thought at one point to be headed toward Japan’s Kansai (Osaka, Nagoya) region, the forecast track has shifted a good 400 miles west in the last three days, now putting Sasebo Naval Base and perhaps even Okinawa in the picture, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

At 6 a.m., Halola was about 840 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, tracking almost due west at some 10 mph, packing sustained 86-mph winds and 104-mph gusts at its center. Halola is due to peak at 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at mid-morning Thursday, lasting about a day, then start curving north, then northeast.

The question still remains, how soon and where the north-northeast curve happens. Halola should weaken as it heads north, encountering cooler seas and high vertical wind shear, but it’s still uncertain where Halola will head in the long term.

For the moment, JTWC projects Halola to pass about 190 miles east-northeast of Kadena at about 6 a.m. Sunday, head north and make a near-direct hit on Sasebo, 13 miles west at around 6 a.m. Monday, then curve northeast into the Sea of Japan (East Sea) as a tropical storm.

Both Sasebo and U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at the moment. Shogunweather.com, Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official Web site, calls for southwesterly winds of 15 mph gusting between 24 and 27 mph Sunday, with a 50-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.

All of this could change again, given the forecast track’s variance the past few days.


12:30 a.m. Wednesday, July 22, Japan time: The bad news: Typhoon Halola’s latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track takes it ever closer to Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni. The good news, if there is such a thing: It likely won’t be as intense as previously forecast.

At 9 p.m. Tuesday, Halola was 133 miles south-southeast of Iwo Jima, tracking west-northwest at 13 mph, packing sustained 86-mph winds and 104-mph gusts at its center. Closest point of approach to Iwo is projected to be 114 miles south-southwest at about 2 a.m. Halola is projected to peak at 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at mid-morning Thursday, JTWC reported.

Halola is still depicted to curve north, then northeast toward Japan’s main islands: there’s still some disparity among dynamic model guidance as to the timing of the curve. For the moment, JTWC projects Halola to rumble 35 miles southwest of Iwakuni at mid-evening Monday, but with sustained 52-mph winds and 63-mph gusts at its center, far below previous projections.

And since the models still aren’t in agreement, all this could change; the forecast track has varied 250 miles west over the last couple of days. And keep in mind, it’s still five days out. PST will keep an eye on it.


6 p.m. Tuesday, July 21, Japan time: Halola has been upgraded to Category 1-equivalent typhoon status again. It’s packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts as it continues tracking west-southwest, close to Iwo Jima. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni remains a possible destination in the long term, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

At 3 p.m., Halola was 183 miles southeast of Iwo, tracking almost west-northwest at 13 mph. JTWC projects Halola to pass 118 miles south-southwest of Iwo at about 4 a.m. Wednesday. It’s projected to peak at 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts early Thursday before curving over cooler sea-surface temperatures and increased wind shear, which typhoons don’t like.

In the long term, Halola should start curving north, then north-northeast, losing intensity as it approaches landfall over southwestern Shikoku island about 3 p.m. Sunday. Halola is forecast to still be packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts, quite the significant tropical storm, as it passes 105 miles southeast of Iwakuni at around the time it makes landfall.

Iwakuni remains in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. There remains something of a gap among dynamic model guidance, so this could easily change again; the forecast track has shifted further west with each succeeding update over the last two days.


1 p.m. Tuesday, July 21, Japan time: It’s still a good five days away, and the forecast track has varied about 100 miles west in the past six hours. But the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update shows Tropical Storm Halola could threaten Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni with tropical storm-force winds Sunday.

At 9 a.m. Tuesday, Halola was about 240 miles southeast of Iwo Jima, now called Iwo To, rumbling west-northwest at 16 mph, JTWC reported. Halola is forecast to intensity back into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, a status it held until just after passing the Wake atoll a few days ago.

JTWC projects Halola to peak at 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts between mid-evening Wednesday and mid-morning Thursday.

Halola is due to pass 110 miles southwest of Iwo during the wee hours Wednesday morning. Tropical storm-force winds extend 90 miles northwest of center and 30 miles southwest, according to Guam’s National Weather Service.

It’s generally agreed among dynamic model guidance that during the next three days, Halola will continue tracking west-northwest to northwest, then into the weekend curve north and then northeast.

JTWC currently projects Halola to make landfall over southwestern Shikoku at mid-morning Sunday, about 114 miles southeast of Iwakuni, still packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center.

But there’s still something of a spread among computer model guidance, so this could change. Iwakuni remains in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Stay tuned.


6 p.m. Monday, July 20, Japan time: Little change to previous update. Halola is now forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to peak at 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at midafternoon Thursday as it curves north, knifing between Iwo Jima and Japan’s southwestern islands, approaching in Honshu’s general direction toward the weekend.

At 3 p.m., Halola was 460 miles east-southeast of Iwo, tracking west-northwest at about 13 mph, sustained 46-mph winds and 58-mph gusts at its center. Halola is projected to regain Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength just as it reaches closest point of approach, 95 miles south-southwest at about 3 a.m. Wednesday, 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at its center.

There remains a spread of about 105 miles among dynamic model guidance three days into the current forecast period; computer models depict varying degrees of the timing of the curve north and northeast. So, still no telling exactly where, if at all, Halola might hit landfall over central Japan. Stay tuned.


12:30 p.m. Monday, July 20, Japan time: Still quite a way’s out, so much uncertainty remains, but Halola, which re-intensified into a tropical storm Monday morning, appears in the late term to be curving toward a final destination somewhere over Japan.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track shows Halola tracking northwest over the next three days, then turning north on Friday, curving north-northeast south of Japan’s main island of Honshu. Too soon to say at this point where in Japan Halola might make landfall, if at all.

Okinawa for the moment appears to be out of harm’s way, though showery, blustery conditions occurring at the moment are forecast to continue through Tuesday evening, up to 70-percent chance of rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms with gusts up to 40 mph. That should subside by Wednesday, then pick up again later in the week, 16-mph winds and 26- to 29-mph gusts Friday evening.

And that could change, as there is something of a spread among dynamic models, JTWC reported.

At 9 a.m., Halola was 531 miles east-southeast of Iwo Jima, tracking west-northwest at 12 mph, with sustained 40-mph winds and 52-mph gusts at its center. Halola is forecast by JTWC to peak at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts sometime Thursday morning before arcing north and northeast Friday into Saturday. PST has its eye on it.


2 p.m.. Sunday, July 19, Japan time: Halola remains a tropical depression as it begins curving west-northwest, and is likely to regain tropical-storm strength by mid-evening Sunday as it continues that journey, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update. The question remains, where it might head once it reaches Japan’s neighborhood.

At noon, Halola was about 800 miles east-southeast of Iwo Jima and was tracking west at some 14 mph. It’s projected to pass 160 miles southwest of Iwo at about 3 a.m. Wednesday, packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at its center, then begin tracking northwest toward Japan’s main islands.

That northwest track appears at the moment to take Halola safely north of the northernmost Commonwealth of Northern Marianas islands, but that could change.

As to Halola’s final destination, it’s still anybody’s guess. Dynamic model guidance remains spread regarding the timing and speed of Halola’s curve; JTWC reported a spread of 120 miles among the 12 computer models three days into the current forecast period. Some of the models project Halola to track further south.

The mid-week weather outlook for Kadena Air Base on Okinawa still offers some indication. ShogunWeather.com, Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official Web site calls for:

  • Sunday afternoon, evening: South to southwesterly winds between 13 and 17 mph, gusts between 20 and 23 with light showers.
  • Monday AM: Southerly winds at 19 mph, gusts between 29 and 32 mph, 70-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday morning.
  • Monday PM: Southerly winds at 24 mph, gusts up to 36 mph.
  • Tuesday AM: Southerly winds at 27 mph, gusts between 38 and 44 mph.
  • Tuesday PM: Southerly 29-mph winds, 41- to 44-mph gusts.
  • Wednesday AM: Southerly 27-mph winds, 36- to 39-mph gusts.
  • Wednesday PM: Southwesterly 24-mph winds, 32- to 35-mph gusts, 60-percent chance of rainshowers and thunderstorms.

PST will keep a sharp eye on Halola.


8 p.m. Saturday, July 18, Japan time: Halola remains a tropical depression packing sustained 35-mph winds and 46-mph gusts at its center, has tracked west-southwest over the last six hours and at 3 p.m. was about 1,040 miles east-southeast of Iwo Jima, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

While questions persist regarding its intensity in the long term, dynamic model guidance has come into better agreement as to Halola’s forecast track, taking it on a gradual west-northwest to northwest track in the general direction of Japan’s main islands.

Halola’s projected to pass 105 miles southwest of Iwo at 10 a.m. Wednesday. Just a question of how strong Halola remains as it tracks north of the Tropic of Cancer sometime Thursday.


3:45 p.m. Saturday, July 18, Japan time: It’s still out there, but too far away from any significant land masses to be of worry at the moment.

But Halola is projected to start moving west-northwest over the weekend, then northwest into next week, possibly threatening Japan as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon; the question being where and when.

Halola has been downgraded to a tropical depression, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update. At noon, it was 700 miles east-northwest of Saipan and 805 miles east-northeast of Guam, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. So the Marianas Islands should be safely out of Halola’s way. Halola is headed due west at 10 mph, packing 35-mph sustained winds.

Where Halola heads from there gets a little tricky, according to JTWC. It forecasts Halola to head some 100 miles southwest of Iwo Jima at about 5 a.m. Tuesday, at which point it should once more be a Cat 1-equivalent typhoon packing sustained 81-mph winds and 98-mile gusts. It’s projected to peak at 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at about 9 a.m. Tuesday, then start weakening as it heads north of the Tropic of Cancer.

But uncertainty remains. JTWC reports there’s about a 370-mile spread among the dynamic forecast models as to where Halola will be and where it will head as of next Wednesday. It could head to the Japanese main islands, southwestern Japan islands, who knows?

Shogunweather.com, Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official Web site, offers up some indication that the weather midweek will deteriorate for Okinawa. It calls for winds to start picking up late Monday. Tuesday’s forecast calls for southerly 27-mph winds and 36- to 40-mph gusts, with anywhere from a 50- to 70-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.


11 a.m. Friday, July 17, Wake time: Halola was downgraded to a tropical storm overnight Thursday and is rapidly moving west away from the Wake island group, which got hit Thursday by tropical storm-force winds. Halola was 345 miles west of Wake at 10 a.m. and is tracking west at 22 mph, packing sustained 40-mph winds at its center. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects re-intensification into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon early Monday morning as it curves slight north of Iwo Jima toward Japan’s outer southeastern islands. PST will continue to keep an eye on it.


4: 45 p.m. Thursday, July 16, Wake time: It’s happening. Halola’s track shifted northwest earlier Thursday, taking it closer to the Wake atoll. Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight said the island group is expecting 40-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at about 5 p.m. Wake time.

Wake remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. One it moves out of Wake’s area, Halola should start tracking west, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and begin a slow northwest arc into Iwo Jima’s general direction by next Tuesday.


Noon Thursday, July 16, Wake time: Halola is currently passing about 60 miles south of the Wake island group, packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at its center, according to Guam’s National Weather Service and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Tropical Storm-force winds extend 120 miles north and typhoon-force winds 35 miles north of center, National Weather Service reported at 10 a.m. From there, Halola is forecast to gradually increase and head west-northwest to northwest toward an as-yet-undetermined destination.


4 a.m. Thursday, July 16, Wake time: The news gets slightly better for the Wake island group as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update depicts a bit of a decrease in wind values and a track taking a few miles further south of the atoll than previous projections. JTWC forecast 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts as Halola passes 78 miles south of Wake at about 10 p.m. Thursday. National Weather Service on Guam reports typhoon-force winds extending 35 miles and tropical storm-force winds 120 miles north of Halola’s center.


10:45 p.m. Wednesday, July 15, Wake time: Halola’s forward speed has increased, now tracking west-northwest at 15 mph and on course to pass 61 miles south-southwest of the Wake island group at about 3 p.m. Friday. The atoll remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Intensity has slipped slightly; Halola is depicted to be packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at its center as it passes Wake, slightly lower than previous forecasts.


4 p.m. Wednesday, July 15, Wake time: Typhoon Halola’s forward speed has slowed to 7 mph west-northwest, meaning it is now forecast to track about 56 miles south of the Wake island group a bit later than previous forecasts, 6 p.m. local time Thursday, packing sustained 98-mph winds and 121-mph gusts at its center. Wake remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2.


2 p.m. Wednesday, July 15, Wake time: The Wake island group has been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.


10 a.m. Wednesday, July 15, Wake time: Halola’s forecast track has flattened a bit west-northwest, but it’s still on course to pass just south of the Wake island group, 54 miles at about 2 p.m. Thursday. Winds at storm’s center remain projected at 98-mph sustained and 121-mph gusts, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update. Wake remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; expect an upgrade by this afternoon. Long term, Halola should track northwest toward Japan’s outer southeastern islands.


3:15 a.m. Wednesday, July 15, Wake time: Halola continues tracking northwest and is projected to pass ever closer to the Wake island group, now about 53 miles south at around 3 p.m. Thursday Wake time, packing sustained 104-mph winds and 127-mph gusts at its center. Wake remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; that should be upgraded sometime Wednesday afternoon. In the long term, Halola should begin tracking more northwest into the weekend; where it ends up, it’s still too early to say.


9:45 p.m. Tuesday, July 14, Wake time: Halola continues tracking northwest and its projected path now takes it 72 miles south-southwest of the Wake Island group at about 4 p.m. Thursday, packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at its center. Wake remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Expect an upgrade sometime early Wednesday afternoon.

In the long term, Halola appears as if it will wigwag slightly more northwest, peaking at 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at midafternoon Sunday Guam time. Guam and the main Mariana Islands remain safely well south of the forecast track. It’s a question of where Halola heads after that.


2 p.m. Tuesday, July 4, Wake time: The Wake island group has been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.


3:30 p.m. Tuesday, July 14, Wake time: Halola intensified early Tuesday afternoon into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, packing sustained 92-mph winds and 115-mph gusts at its center at 1 p.m. Tuesday, still a good 650 miles southeast of the Wake island group and tracking west-northwest at 13 mph, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

Wake remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at mid-afternoon; a call was expected later Tuesday for acceleration to TCCOR 3, an official on Wake said by phone. Halola is due to pass 81 miles south-southwest of Wake at about 1 p.m. Thursday, with sustained 127-mph winds and 155-mph gusts at its center.

JTWC projects Halola to continue heading west-northwest, peaking at 138-mph sustained and 167-mph gusts at mid-morning Saturday as it veers north of the northern Marianas islands.


10:30 a.m. Tuesday, July 14, Wake time: Halola remains just below Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength for the moment, and Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes Halola slightly closer to the Wake island group, about 91 miles south at around 1 p.m. Thursday. About 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at its center. JTWC depicts Wake as being well within Halola’s 40-mph wind bands at the moment. Officials at Wake said an upgrade to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 is expected about noon Wake time.


3:45 a.m. Tuesday, July 14, Wake time: Halola is just hours shy of being upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon and remains on track to pass just south of the Wake island group early Thursday morning, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

Halola is due to track about 110 miles south-southwest of Wake at about 8 a.m. Thursday, packing sustained 110-mph winds and 132-mph gusts at its center. JTWC projects Halola to be relatively small in diameter and for Wake to be north of its fiercest winds at that point.

Halola is then due to continue west-northwest, well north of Guam and the main Marianas islands, peaking at 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts entering the weekend.


10:30 p.m. Monday, July 13, Wake time: The news gets a bit better for the Wake island group, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update, regarding Tropical Storm Halola. It’s now forecast to track 128 miles south-southwest of Wake at about 11 a.m. Thursday, packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at its center. Currently, according to the National Weather Service on Guam, tropical storm-force winds extend 65 miles north of Halola’s center. At 10 p.m., Halola was 900 miles east-southeast of Wake, trackinig northwest at 8 mph, and JTWC projects Halola to continue tracking west-northwest to northwest over the next few days.


4 p.m. Monday, July 13, Wake time: Halola has crossed the international dateline and officially become a western Pacific tropical storm.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes Halola about 90 miles south of the Wake island group at around 7 a.m. Thursday, packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at its center. It’s not projected to be a big storm in terms of diameter, but Wake should be well within Halola’s 40-mph wind bands.

From there, Halola is forecast to keep intensifying as it passes well north of the Marshall and Micronesian islands. The northern Marianas also appear safe at the moment. JTWC projects Halola to keep moving west-northwest in the long term.


3:30 a.m. Monday, July 13, Wake time: Halola’s track has bumped a bit more northwest and should take it a bit closer to the Wake island group than earlier projected. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes Halola 83 miles south-southwest of the atoll at about 4 a.m. Thursday, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at its center. Questions remain about Halola’s shelf life and track beyond that point. PST will keep an eye on it.


10:45 p.m. Sunday, July 12, Wake time: Halola is slowly intensifying and appears according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to have settled on a west-northwest track that should take it 190 miles south-southwest of the Wake island group and well north of the Marshall Islands at about 11 a.m. Thursday.

JTWC projects Halola to continue heading west-northwest as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, packing sustained 81-mph winds and 98-mph gusts from mid-day Tuesday into mid-day Friday. The questions regarding a storm like Halola is: will it maintain its intensity and in the long term possibly become a threat to Iwo Jima, Okinawa or Japan’s main islands. Too soon to say at this point.


1:30 a.m. Saturday, July 11, Hawaii time: Tropical Storm Halola, the first significant storm of the central Pacific’s season, spawned overnight Friday south of Johnston Island.

While it’s in its infancy and things can change quickly, Joint Typhoon Warning Center has Halola tracking about 116 miles south of the Wake island group at about 7 a.m. Thursday in Wake’s time zone, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at its center.

That’s a far cry from the last significant storm to threaten Wake – nine years ago, Super Typhoon Ioke shut down Wake for several months after making a direct hit on the three-island group. But forecast tracks and wind speeds can change. Halola’s forecast track could become close enough of a concern for the facility administered by the Air Force and the National Park Service.

 

[“source – stripes.com”]